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Perspectives on the Geopolitical Implications of Post-1991 Ethiopia's Hydropower Development
Abstract
This study examines the competing perspectives on the geopolitical implications of the booming
hydropower development in Ethiopia since 1991, which has generated debates on its geopolitical
ramifications. The study aims to synthesize the competing perspectives on hydropower
development's geopolitical implications through the lens of complex interdependence theory.
The study used a qualitative research approach, gathering data from 50 purposively selected key
informants from government institutions, regional organizations, academic institutions, research
institutes, and power sector advisors. Additionally, documents and secondary sources were
consulted. The study identifies three contending perspectives on the geopolitical implications of
hydropower development in Ethiopia since 1991. While the hydro-transformative perspective
considered hydropower development as having a positive implication for Ethiopia and the region
at large, the hydro-skeptics considered it a source of hydro and geopolitical tensions and rivalry.
By synthesizing these contradictory theses, the study introduces the third interdependence
perspective arguing that the massive hydropower development in Ethiopia since 1991 is
foreshadowing a new emergent region characterized by a complex interdependent grid region
and grid-connected community where conflict and cooperation, rivalry, and competition coexist.
Therefore, Ethiopia and countries in the region must navigate the challenges and opportunities
presented by hydropower development within this complex web of competing and cooperative
interests.
