Why do most spectacular surprise successes end up in defeat?

Abstract

This study analysed why most spectacular surprise successes end up in defeat. Surprise has consistently been a substantive characteristic of warfare. Surprise is an event that is initiated with the aim of taking the enemy unaware. The surprise initiator desires to attain victory against the enemy with minimal attrition to their equipment and forces. Some surprise offensives however, remarkably succeed at the initial point, only to become catastrophic in the end for the surprise attacker. The objective of the study was to probe the possible causes for an ultimate defeat of the surprise attackers by the victim of the surprise through an in-depth historical analysis of case studies of surprise wars. The study adopted the qualitative research approach and a descriptive discourse pattern, and data collection was mainly secondary. An in-depth analysis brings to light that surprise offensives mostly fail in a catastrophic way because the strategy of the adversary that took the initiative is miscalculated. Thus, surprise mobilizes the victim and their response is usually vicious and brutal resulting in the defeat of the surprise initiator. The study recommended that for a surprise to be successful and achieve an ultimate victory in a war it needs to be incorporated into a creative comprehensive war strategy.