Impact of HIV/AIDS on Gross Domestic Product (GGP) in the WHO Africa Region

Abstract

HIV/AIDS is hypothesized to have substantive negative impact on health status and economic development of individuals, households, communities and nations. The objective of this study was to estimate the burden of HIV/AIDS on GDP in the WHO African Region using a production function approach. The economic burden analysis was done using a double-log econometric model and a cross-sectional data on 45 to 46 countries in the WHO African Region. The data were obtained from WHO, UNAIDS, ECA, UNDP and the World Bank publications. The coefficient for Capital (K), Education (EN), Export (X) and Imports (M) were found to be statistically significant determinants of per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at 5% level of significance (using a one-sided t-distribution test). Unfortunately, HIV/AIDS morbidity (V) and HIV/AIDS deaths (VD), at the same level of significance, were found to have statistically insignificant impact on GDP. However, the coefficients of these variables had negative signs as expected. In all African countries, there is need for more detailed research on the total economic cost of HIV/AIDS (probably estimated using micro-level costing and willingness-to-pay methods) and for economic evaluations of treatment, prevention and promotion programmes.

[Afr. J. Health Sci. 2002; 9: 27-39]