“Mapping the regional variation in potential vulnerability in Indian Agriculture to climate change”- An exercise through constructing vulnerability index

Abstract

India is potentially vulnerable to adverse impacts in agriculture on account of climate change. The Anticipated changes in water availability (surface, freshwater and ground water), temperature rise, soil degradation and the suggested increase in extreme events such as the drought, floods and cyclones will affect agricultural severely. The present paper aims to develop the vulnerability profile of agricultural systems of the Indian states to the changing climate scenarios. It develops two sub indices, namely, Bio-Physical vulnerability index and Socio-Economic vulnerability index to develop the final overall vulnerability index. Bio-Physical vulnerability index has been constructed by considering five indicators, namely: (1) Cropping intensity, (2) Percentage of area under leguminous crops, (3) Percentage of degraded area to total geographical area, (4) Unexploited surface water available for future and (5) Unexploited surface water available for future. The Socio-Economic Vulnerability index has been computed by considering four indicators like: Irrigation intensity, Percentage of people below poverty line, Percentage of agricultural workers to total workers, Literacy rate. Modified UNDP method has been used in developing all the indicators. It has been found that most of the states which are having very high or high vulnerability are centered on the central and north-central part of India.

Key words: Climate change, vulnerability, environmental sustainability.