The uncertainty of natural gas consumption in Tanzania to support economic development. Evidence from Bayesian estimates

Abstract

Using a Bayesian regression model, this study evaluates the impact of natural gas use on economic growth in Tanzania from 2004 to 2016. Natural gas consumption, economic growth (as assessed by real GDP per capita), and labor supply and capital were all controlled as factors in the model. The empirical findings of this study reveal that natural gas usage during the study period is highly uncertain in terms of economic contribution. The mean value of natural gas consumption in 95 percent credible intervals ranges from negative to positive. This means that natural gas consumption and market demand are unlikely to have a significant impact on the country's economic progress. The findings, on the other hand, demonstrated that the labor force supply has a favorable impact on economic growth. To affect economic development, we advocate providing additional labor force to the Tanzanian economy, as well as upgrading and strengthening natural gas consumption policies, such as gas power production, industrial use and an efficient natural gas market.