Decision making analysis of walnut seedling production on a small family farm in Serbia

Abstract

The wide range of walnut application makes it one of the most appreciated fruit species. In 2008, Serbian government started providing subsidies for every planted walnut seedling. These incentives have already increased the interest in this type of seedlings on the market. One of the main objectives of each farm is to maximize economic results. For a family farm, there are many alternatives on how to accomplish this objective. The decision making analysis has been done on the basis of the case study for the typical small family farm that produces walnut seedlings, located in the central part of Serbia. One of the options for the farm is to proceed to use current technology, while the other possibility is to be reduced some of production operations. A third alternative is to give up the seedlings production and to put that money in the bank as savings. The decision has to be made between those three alternatives aiming at achievement of optimal/best economic result for the family farm. Summarizing results obtained from the decision tree, simulation and sensitivity analysis, the optimal solution for the family farm should be to continue production of walnut seedlings with technology it is currently using.

Key words: Decision making analysis, family farm, seedling production, walnut, Serbia.