Predictors of mortality among people living with HIV in the test and treat era within rural Uganda: a retrospective cohort study

Abstract

Background: Uganda adopted the test and treat strategy in 2016 where all people living with HIV are initiated on antiretroviral drugs irrespective of CD4 count and WHO clinical stage, as one of the major strategies to end the HIV epidemic by 2030. Despite these measures, there are still more than 2 000 HIV-related death annually. The study aim was to determine the mortality rate and factors predictive of mortality in the test and treat era among people living with HIV in rural Uganda.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among people living with HIV enrolled into care between January 2016 and December 2020 at Kabwohe Clinical Research Centre in south-western Uganda. Kaplan–Meier curves were used for survival analysis and Cox regression analysis at bivariate and multivariable levels was used to determine the adjusted hazard ratios (AHR) and identify predictors of death during the study period.

Results: Of the 976 participants included in the study, 57.1% (557) were females while 42.9% (419) were males. The median age of the participants was 35 years. The average follow-up period was 2.9 years with an overall mortality rate of 0.99 per 100 person-years at risk. In multivariate analysis, the independent predictors for mortality were: CD4 < 200cells/mm³ (AHR 3.68; 95% CI 1.7–8.1), viral load ≥ 1 000 copies/ml (AHR 5.22; 95% CI 2.4–11.4) and a non-optimised antiretroviral regimen (AHR 4.08; 95% CI 1.5–0.8).

Conclusion: There was a low mortality rate observed in this study with a higher risk of death associated with advanced HIV disease and unsuppressed initial viral load. The findings of the study therefore support efforts in early antiretroviral therapy initiation as it increases the likelihood of people living with HIV surviving and can accelerate efforts in ending the HIV epidemic by 2030.