Predictors of acute heart failure outcomes at University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria

Abstract

Background: Studies of acute heart failure (AHF) outcomes suggest that there are different predictors of mortality depending on region,  ethnicity, and gender.

Objective: The purpose of this study was to identify predictors of six months’ post discharge outcome among AHF patients in a Nigerian  tertiary hospital.

Methods and Materials: This study was a prospective observational study conducted at the cardiology unit of the Department of  Medicine at the University College Hospital Ibadan. One hundred and sixty AHF participants > 18 years old were recruited.

Results: The mean age of the cohort was 58.0±15.1 years and most were males (59.4%). The independent predictors for death outcome  after six months of discharge for AHF and the adjusted hazard ratio) (95% CI) were male gender 2.77 (1.17 -6.56); p = 0.020; systolic blood  pressure (mmHg) 0.98 (0.96 - 0.99); p = 0.011; and the presence of hepatomegaly 2.58 (1.02 - 6.51); p = 0.045. Independent predictors for  readmission or rehospitalization within 6 months after discharge were presence of right abdominal pain adjusted HR (95% CI): 2.07(1.14 -  3.76), p=0.017; SBP 0.98(0.96 - 0.99), p=0.005. Independent predictors for composite endpoint were male gender: adjusted HR: 2.08 (1.16 -  3.72), p= 0.014 and pericardial effusion and tamponade: 5.31(1.79 - 15.74), p=0.003.

Conclusion: The study provided an insight into the  factors contributing to outcomes six-month after admission in a tertiary centre in South-Western Nigeria, and it highlighted the predictive  role of systolic blood pressure.