Covid-19 and African Trade Performance An empirical evaluation

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic led to significant disruptions in socio-economic activity across the globe, particularly trade disruptions that resulted in diminished trade performance stemming from border closures, trade restrictions, and confinement measures. This prompted this study. The empirical results from using panel data from 30 African countries and the fully modified ordinary least squares and system Generalised Method of Moments estimation techniques demonstrate that the pandemic caused significant deterioration in Africa’s external trade because of trade restrictions, disrupted production and supply chains (a continental supply shock), and the demand slump associated with the lockdowns. The study recommends robust and results-oriented shock-mitigating measures to ensure economic resilience, and well-timed policy responses to address external shocks and uncertainties like the Covid-19 pandemic.