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Trends in under-five mortality in Uganda 1954-2000: can Millennium Development Goals be met?
Abstract
Objective: To describe the changes in U5MR in Uganda from 1954 to 2000 and use them to project future trends up to 2015.
Methods: We did a retrospective analysis of the Uganda national censuses of 1969, 1991 and 2002. We calculated the percentage of the annual average reduction rate (AARR) of U5MR between the years 1954-1966, 1966- 1975, 1975-1988 and from 1988 to 2000. The AARRs of U5MR between 1954 and 2000 were then compared to that of 4.4% required to achieve MDG4.
Results: The U5MR in Uganda between 1954 and 1966 decreased from 261 to 180 deaths per 1000 live births with an AARR of 3.05%. Between 1975 and 1988, the U5MR increased with AARR from 1966 to 1975 being -1.05% while the AARR from 1976 to 1988 was -0.11%. From 1988 to 2000 U5MR decreased from 205 to 152 deaths per 1000 live births with an AARR of 2.46%.
Conclusions: The AARRs for the U5MR of -1.05-3.05% were below the 4.4% required to achieve MDG4.
