Evaluating the Probability of Yield Thresholds and Change in Agricultural Risks in Some Parts of Northern Nigeria

Abstract

There is increasing recognition of the effect that variations in climate may have not only on mean crop yield but also on the probability of achieving acceptable yield levels. In this study, we examined the role of crop zonation as an adaptive strategy for coping with climatic variations in the semi-arid region of northern Nigeria. We considered the probability of obtaining specific yield thresholds under defined climatic environments. Thus, it was possible to observe changes in agricultural risks among the rainfall stations under study. The stations were strategically selected to span the Sudan-Sahel zone of Nigeria, which makes them suitable for considering changes in agricultural risks and crop zonation experiments. The results showed that crops responded differently to changes in growing season precipitation across locations. We suggest that experiments on the probability of yield thresholds at different locations can be used to plan successful agricultural projects under a variable climate.

Keywords: Yield thresholds, climate change, tropical agriculture, risk management.