Modelling risk management techniques in poultry production in rivers and Akwa Ibom States, Nigeria; A comparative approach

Abstract

The study was carried out to model risk management techniques in poultry production in Rivers and Akwa Ibom States, Nigeria.  Multistage sampling procedure was used to select 300 poultry farmers for the study. Data obtained were analyzed using descriptive  statistics, fuzzy logic model, ordered probit model and mann-whitney u-test. Most frequent sources of risk encountered was: “theft by  non-workers, inefficiency of workers, lateness in drugs and vaccine administration, and fluctuation of input price. Also, erratic rainfall,  incident of diseases, theft by workers, fluctuation in output prices and unavailability of input diversify the two states. Results showed that  Rivers State had the higher percentage (70.8%) of the poultry farmers that were on the low level of risk management while Akwa Ibom  State had the lower percentage (63.8%). Also 19.2% and 10% of the poultry farmers, were at a moderate and high level of risk  management, in Rivers state respectively, while 20.8% and 15.4% were at a moderate and high level of risk management in Akwa Ibom  State respectively. In Akwa Ibom State, two variables; experience and parent stock were considered to be significant at 5% and 1%  respectively. A log likelihood of −69.04815 and pseudo R² of 0.59949 was recorded. In Rivers State, two variables; stock size and parent  stock were considered to be significant at both 5% and 10% level of significant respectively. A log likelihood of −68.33133and pseudo R² of  0.62428 was recorded also. The study recommends increased participation of farmers in livestock insurance to mitigate against  disease outbreak in poultry enterprise.