Box-Jenkins analysis of mean monthly temperature in Rwanda

Abstract

Generally, temperature is a sensation of coldness and hotness and is affected by air and humidity as climate factors in certain areas. The high altitude of Rwanda provides the country with pleasant tropical highland climate. The recent research done on climate changes and global warming found an increase in temperature of 1 to 2 degrees Celsius between year 2000 and year 2050 due to the natural variability and due to the green house gases that trap the infrared radiation, i.e., these gases will cause the temperature of the earth to increases infrared radiation from the earth surface and reflect it back to the earth. This paper has the general aim of analyze, interpret and forecast the data from Meteo-Rwanda of mean monthly temperature from year 2004-2016 to 2022, from Gitega station in Rwanda. The results of this paper show that there is no true difference in medians of monthly temperature from the taken station. 

Keywords: Times series analysis; SARIMA models; temperature forecast