Road Traffic Accident Variations in Lagos State, Nigeria: A Synopsis of Variance Spectra

Abstract

The major objective of this research is to examine the variation patterns of road traffic accident in Lagos State. The study used mostly secondary data; accident records and vehicular situation were obtained from the Nigeria police force and Federal Road Safety Commission. The data were obtained for a period of thirty two (32) years from 1970-2001. The analysis of the number and type of vehicles involved in road traffic accidents revealed that private cars, buses and taxis were more prone to accidents in Lagos State. The 16 harmonics for the selected L.G.A’s considered contribute above 90% of the total variance in the time series. This means that more than 90% of road traffic accident in Lagos State could be attributed to recklessness on the part of drivers, ignorance of high way codes, over speeding etc. Also, the dominant cycles of road traffic accidents observed in the study area have periodicities of 32.00 and 16.00 years with the most dominant being 32years. This means that the dominant and strongest road traffic accident pattern of Lagos State repeats itself every 32years. Based on the findings, recommendations were proffered.

Keywords: Accident; traffic; variations; variance spectra; Lagos State