Macroeconomic leading indicators of listed property price movements in Nigeria and South Africa

Abstract

This article aims to identify macroeconomic leading indicators that influence changes in the listed property price movements in South Africa and Nigeria. This serves to improve the quantitative approaches to investment appraisal in emerging markets of sub-Saharan Africa. The data relating to macroeconomic leading indicators, including Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) Listed Property (J253) quarterly price data, Nigerian listed real-estate data, and Macroeconomic indicator series for Nigeria and South Africa, were collected
from Iress Expert Database, Stats SA, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), the National Bureau of Statistics (Nigeria), and the World Bank. The article identifies that coincident indicators and the exchange rate have a positive and significant relationship with the JSE-listed real estate in the South African market. While the bank lending rate, the consumer price index, and the Treasury bill rate (TBR) are identified as reliable indicators in the Nigerian listed real-estate market. The results show that investors must pay attention to these indices in their choice of the market(s) within the sub-Saharan African context, as this will guarantee capital appreciation or growth.

Keywords: Indicators, investment, listed property, macroeconomic, price

Hierdie artikel het ten doel om makro-ekonomiese leidende aanwysers te identifiseer wat die veranderinge in die genoteerde eiendomsprysbewegings in Suid-Afrika en Nigerië beïnvloed. Dit help om die kwantitatiewe benaderings tot beleggingsbeoordeling in opkomende markte in Afrika suid van die Sahara te verbeter. Die gegewens rakende makro-ekonomiese leidende aanwysers, insluitend die kwartaallikse prysdata van die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs (J253), die Nigeriese vaste eiendomsdata en die makro-ekonomiese aanwyserreeks vir Nigerië en Suid-Afrika is versamel van Iress Expert Database, Stats SA, die Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), die National Bureau of Statistics (Nigeria) en die Wêreldbank. In die artikel word aangedui dat samevallende aanwysers en die wisselkoers ’n positiewe en beduidende verband het met die JSEgenoteerde vaste eiendom in die Suid-Afrikaanse mark. Terwyl die bankleningsyfer, die verbruikersprysindeks en die skatkis (TBR) as betroubare aanwysers in die Nigeriese genoteerde eiendomsmark geïdentifiseer word. Die resultate toon dat beleggers aandag moet skenk aan hierdie indekse in hul keuse van die mark(te) binne Afrika suid van die Sahara, aangesien dit kapitaalappresiasie of groei sal waarborg.

Sleutelwoorde: Aanwysers, belegging, genoteerde eiendom, makro-ekonomies, prys