Effect of climate change on cocoa productivity in Nigeria

Abstract

The increasing global consensus built on empirical evidence that the world is facing a threat from climate change has sustained the feeling and belief that many countries in tropical and sub-tropical regions be more vulnerable to the bizarre phenomenon. The situation will be most severe in Africa where information on climate change is the poorest, technological change has been the slowest, and the domestic economies depend the most heavily on agriculture. The study examined the relative effect of climate change on the productivity of cocoa in Nigeria. Data employed were national aggregates of the export crop and climate variables collected from reputable secondary sources covering 1961 – 2010. Overall, rainfall recorded a significant negative coefficient while that of temperature was positive coefficient, implying decreasing rainfall with rising temperature. More so, rainfall and its squared term were the only significant climatic variables influencing the productivity of cocoa. It is therefore suggested
that cocoa farmers should adopt new measures to cope with the emerging negative effect of climate change.