Regional climate model performance and prediction of seasonal rainfall and surface temperature of Uganda

Abstract

Knowledge about future climate provides valuable insights into how the challenges posed by climate change and variability can be addressed. This study assessed the skill of the United Kingdom (UK) Regional Climate Model (RCM) PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) in simulating rainfall and temperature over Uganda and also assess future impacts of climate when forced by an ensemble of two Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the period 2070-2100. Results show that the models captured fairly well the large scale flow signals influencing rainfall and temperature patterns over Uganda. Rainfall and temperature patterns were better resolved by the RCM than the GCMs. The rainfall and temperature patterns differed among the three seasons. Rainy season March to May (MAM) is likely to experience increment in both surface temperature (0.9 oC) and rainfall (0.2 mm day-1). For September to October (SON) rainy season, an opposite trend in the two climate parameters, temperature and rainfall, will be registered with the former increasing by 0.9 oC and the latter dropping by 0.7 mm day-1. For the dry season, June to August (JJA), both temperature and rainfall are projected to decrease by 0.3 oC and 0.4 mm day-1, respectively.